In his last election in 2022, David Schweikert won by less than one percent of the vote. His opponent was Jevin Hodge a Democrat hoping to take advantage of the newly drawn district's increase in independent voters. Hodge insisted that Schweikerts earlier finance violations which cost him a 125,000 dollar fine would be sufficient to win him the election. That turned out not to be the case. What this election showed to opponents of Schweikert is that it will take more than a scandal and redistricting to win this seat. 

    As mentioned previously the district faced considerable demographic changes after redistricting in 2022. A trend seen in Schwiekert's district was independent or moderate republican voters shying away from Schwiekert due to his proximity to Trump. The new district became more suburban and accelerated this trend. The district is now considered a near toss-up with a lead towards Republicans. 

Maricopa County

    Campaign finance data shows that David Schweikert has the most campaign funds out of any campaign in the district at under a million dollars, however, the total amount of combined campaign funds that all of his democratic opponents have is significantly higher nearly 6 million. This indicates that Schweikert has party support in his reelection but faces significant competition from multiple different opponents. 

   

 In the Schweikerts reelection campaign, he will have to be on the defensive. Due to his changing constituency, he will have to distance himself from Trump and the abortion ruling. Schweikert is still focusing on the national debt this election cycle but another issue at the forefront of his campaign is border security. Schweikert has introduced or supported some legislation pertaining to the issue, an example of campaigning from office. 

Overall Schweikert appears to have a difficult path ahead of him if he wants to retain this seat. This race will likely be one of the closest in the country and may disrupt Schweikerts long political career.